With colder temperatures in the forecast for the holiday weekend, the chance of clear skies increases. KHNS’ Mike Swasey spoke with Research Associate Professor Don Hampton from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks about the aurora forecast.

 

Hampton – The Aurora is driven by the solar wind, it’s a stream of charged particles that come out of the sun. And that interacts with our magnetic field and creates energetic particles that come down and create the Aurora. Recently, we’ve been through the solar minimum, when the solar activity was just pretty low, it was just sort of a constant stream. But now we’re starting to get more of these sort of sporadic storms going on. And right now the solar wind speed is pretty high. 

This is on Tuesday. I don’t know how long that will last. But one of the best ways to see what’s going to happen now is what happened 27 days ago when the sun was one orbit or one rotation back. The sun rotates every 27 days or so. And about a month ago, or 27 days ago, it was reasonably active. So I think we can expect some sort of activity. And of course, the activity expands this region where the Aurora happens called the auroral oval. That oval expands and contracts based on strength of the solar wind. 

So there’s an okay chance that you’ll be able to see some sort of Aurora, especially if you can sort of look off to the north from where you’re standing if you get nice, clear skies. So that’s probably the best thing to do.

Swasey – Well, it looks like there are active forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, and then it kind of dips a little bit. And then early next week, it looks like, at least from the Geophysical Institute’s website, it looks like there’s another really good chance early next week of seeing Aurora.

Hampton – That’s probably reasonable. I would say if there’s a forecast for some activity, I’d give it a plus or minus one day for when that might happen. If you want to see stuff down, say in Skagway, you probably need a KP of four or five. The Geophysical Institute gives a number and that’s really what we call the KP index. And what I’ve been seeing in the forecast recently is probably threes to fours. So you might get something within a quarter or for the next couple of days. It’d be good.

Swasey – Alright, Don, thanks so much. Have a great holiday.

Hampton – You too. Thanks, Mike.