Fall weather in the upper Lynn Canal can vary wildly with a mix of sun, snow, and wind. This week looks to have all of the above. KHNS’ Mike Swasey checked in with lead meteorologist Rick Fritsch from the National Weather Service in Juneau for a closer look at the forecast.

Swasey – Alright, so Rick, what is the weather looking like for the upper Lynn Canal this week?

Fritsch – Well, you know that far north on the inside, a lot of the action is going to be passing to the south. And the shower activity is making its way as far north as Haines, but really the heavier shower activity is further south. Now the one thing that Haines and Skagway do have going for them if you’re into winter weather, is the temperatures, specifically the overnight lows this coming week, are going to be down there in the freezing or slightly above freezing range. 

And whatever does show up overnight in the Haines area, and specifically really west of the airport, so Klukwan and out towards the border, with overnight lows getting down low enough to support a little bit of snow or whatever might fall out of the sky. 

Wednesday afternoon, going into Wednesday evening, the likelihood of precipitation is higher. But then we move into very much the second half of the week, so Thursday afternoon, Friday, and Saturday, even until Sunday, it looks like conditions are going to be on the drier side perhaps, more pleasant conditions Sunday evening for the young trick or treaters out there.

Swasey – Aha! So not a wet Halloween and not a big snowstorm in the forecast for Halloween, because those are always exciting when those happen. But you’re saying we may get a little snow shower here and there throughout the week, but nothing that’s going to stick and nothing that’s going to be of any consequence.

Fritsch – Pretty much middle to low 40s for daytime highs right on through the week. This is another important point as well; while we might see a little bit of snow at night when the temperatures are cooler, that’s going to go away and it’s going to transition to rain, whatever does fall during the daytime.

Swasey – What’s the likelihood that we’re going to get enough precipitation to warrant significant snowfall?

Fritsch – I would say the best chance for that is going to be Wednesday night where the probability of precipitation is approaching 80 to 90%. And with that probability, although Haines 37 degrees is the overnight low forecast currently, Chilkat River bridge at that same time getting down much closer to freezing, you know 32 to 35 degrees, (meaning a) rain-snow mix possibly? Getting out to the border, 31 degrees is the forecast right now, and certainly, we would expect to see some snow out of that.

Swasey – Right, how about Skagway? What are Skagway and Dyea looking like?

Fritsch – (For) Skagway, around 39 degrees, so very comparable to downtown Haines. White Pass (looks) a little bit cooler than the border there on the Haines Highway at down to 27. And their probability or their likelihood for some kind of precipitation rain or snow Wednesday night is also really quite high, 80 to 90%. 

Swasey – Hey, what are the winds looking like this week?

Fritsch – The winds will certainly be out of the south with maybe even close to gale force southerly winds in northern Lynn Canal. That’s Wednesday night when we’re expecting the highest probability of some precipitation as well.

Swasey – All right, stormy Wednesday night and then relatively calm for the rest of the week. Chance of some overnight snow with some probably some frost on the ground the next several days and then a little bit of clearing sky over the weekend. 

Fritsch – That sounds like a pretty good summation of it, yup. 

Swasey – Thank you so much for the weather update. Rick, appreciate it. 

Fritsch – Hey, you’re quite welcome.

 For a more up to the minute forecast visit weather.gov.